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新一轮投资热潮将至 国内风电运维市场持续回暖

作者:admin  日期:2018-10-29 14:23  人气:
近年来,我国风电装机规模跃居前位,并形成了装备制造、电站设计建设、运维管理等板块为重点的发展格局。值得期待的是,在未来三年内,在政策提振、产业链日趋成熟下,我国风电运维市场将步入新景气周期。
 
In recent years, China's wind power installation scale has jumped to the forefront, and formed a development pattern with the emphasis on equipment manufacturing, power plant design and construction, operation and maintenance management. It is expected that in the next three years, with the policy promotion and industry chain maturing, China's wind power operation and maintenance market will enter a new boom cycle.
 
 
 
随着风电装机规模不断扩大及大批风机走出质保期,运维已成为风电产业的重头戏。
 
With the continuous expansion of the installed scale of wind power and a large number of fans out of the warranty period, operation and maintenance has become an important part of the wind power industry.
 
 
 
作为继火电、水电之后的第三大电源,风电正逐步驶入发展快车道。公开资料显示,截至2017年年底,国内风电累计装机容量已超过1.79亿千瓦,所贡献的电力约占全国总电力近4.8%。按照质保期五年计算,近几年将有大批风电机组相继出质保期。彼时,大批风机还面临更新改造、换代升级的问题,将成为后运维服务市场的又一大需求点。而风电运维市场横跨风电设备从出厂、安装到最终退役拆除的全过程,长达20—25年。
 
As the third largest power source after thermal power and hydropower, wind power is gradually moving into the fast lane. According to public information, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China has exceeded 179 million kilowatts by the end of 2017, and the contribution of wind power accounts for nearly 4.8% of the total electricity in China. According to the quality assurance period of five years, a large number of wind turbines will be released in quality in recent years. At that time, a large number of fans are also facing the problem of renewal and upgrading, which will become another major demand point in the future operation and maintenance service market. Wind power operation and maintenance market spans the entire process of wind power equipment from factory, installation to final decommissioning and demolition, lasting 20-25 years.
 
 
 
 
 
根据风电市场的新增装机情况以及“十三五”期间的装机预测,运维市场的体量正逐步打开。未来三年内,我国风电装机预计超过1.9亿千瓦。按照年利用小时数2000小时,每千瓦时运维费用五分钱计算,运维市场容量将超过198亿元。另据彭博新能源财经的研究报告预计,到2022年,中国风电场运维费用每年将增长至30亿美元。换言之,预计至2020年,我国风电运维市场总量将高达1000亿。
 
According to the new installed wind power market situation and the "13th Five-Year" period of installed forecast, the volume of the operation and maintenance market is gradually opening. In the next three years, China's wind power installed capacity is expected to exceed 190 million kilowatts. According to the annual utilization of 2000 hours, the operation and maintenance costs per kilowatt-hour five cents, the operation and maintenance market capacity will exceed 19.8 billion yuan. According to a Bloomberg New Energy Finance research report, China's wind farm operation and maintenance costs will increase to $3 billion a year by 2022. In other words, it is estimated that by 2020, China's wind power operation and maintenance market will be as high as 100 billion.
 
 
 
面对如此巨大的存量市场和可预见的增量市场,开发商、整机商及第三方企业纷纷参与到风电运维领域。不少整机运维商也将眼光锁定在质保期外的机组上,通过对这些机组运维,扩大市场份额。其中,风电整机制造商因具有早发集成优势、技术优势和先进的运维理念最具发展潜力。除了对风机运行况状中各项性能更了解外,还能通过风机运行中的各项数据进行分析后选择合适的时间进行维护工作。同时,风电整机制造商纷纷地由单一制造商向服务商转型,拓展运维后服务市场。
 
In the face of such a huge stock market and foreseeable incremental market, developers, machine manufacturers and third-party enterprises have participated in the field of wind power operation and maintenance. Many aircraft operators will also focus on the unit outside the warranty period, through the operation and maintenance of these units, to expand market share. Among them, wind turbine manufacturers have the most potential for development because of their early integration advantages, technical advantages and advanced operation and maintenance concepts. In addition to a better understanding of the performance of the fan operating conditions, but also through the fan running in the various data analysis to select the appropriate time for maintenance work. At the same time, wind turbine manufacturers have transformed from a single manufacturer to a service provider, expanding the service market after operation and maintenance.
 
 
 
2017年中旬,国家能源局综合司发布《关于开展风电平价上网示范工作的通知》,要求各地于6月30日前申报风电平价上网示范项目。这也意味着,在可再生能源中先行一步的风电即将进入新的发展阶段。而在行业“游戏规则”可能改变的大背景下,风电企业将会在短期内面临较大经营压力。
 
In mid-2017, the comprehensive Department of the State Energy Administration issued the Notice on Developing Demonstration Work of Wind Power on-line at Equivalent Price, requiring all localities to declare demonstration projects of wind power on-line at Equivalent Price by June 30. This also means that wind power in the first step of renewable energy will soon enter a new stage of development. Under the background that the industry "rules of the game" may change, wind power enterprises will face greater operating pressure in the short term.
 
 
 
如何通过合理运维,降低成本,提升市场竞争力,不仅是风电行业的需求,也将成为整个运维市场的必选项。由于初期一哄而上、粗放经营而存在着诸多隐忧,截至目前这一市场品牌尚未形成。加之在平价上网时代,度电成本降低,成本压力相对增大,风电运维后市场的发展仍需行稳致远。期间,整机制造商、第三方服务商、组件供应商也将进一步在行业发展的进程中相互合作,形成合作共赢的后服务生态圈。
 
How to reduce costs and enhance market competitiveness through reasonable operation and maintenance is not only the demand of wind power industry, but also the inevitable choice of the whole operation and maintenance market. As a result of the initial rush up, extensive management and there are many hidden worries, so far this market brand has not yet formed. In addition, in the era of affordable access to the Internet, the cost of electricity consumption is reduced, and the cost pressure is relatively increased. The development of the market after wind power operation and maintenance still needs to be stable and far-reaching. During this period, the whole machine manufacturers, third-party service providers, component suppliers will further cooperate with each other in the process of industry development, forming a win-win cooperation of the post-service ecosphere.
 
 
 
在“互联网+”、大数据等异常“热闹”的当下,在风电运维中也出现了创新模式,智能化应用在风电运维中已然成为一种趋势。诚如预测性风电运维的实现往往与庞大的风场运行数据息息相关,平台化的软件解决方案必然是今后发展的趋势之一。其中的关键就是零部件寿命的最大化以及早期预警和诊断。在这一领域,大部件商、整机商和业主之间需要进一步加强合作。
 
In the "Internet plus", big data and other unusual "busy" at present, in wind power operation and maintenance also appeared in the innovation mode, intelligent application in wind power operation and maintenance has become a trend. As the implementation of predictive wind power operation and maintenance is often closely related to the huge wind farm operation data, platform-based software solutions are bound to be one of the development trends in the future. The key is the maximization of component life and early warning and diagnosis. In this area, there is a need for further cooperation between major components, manufacturers and owners.
 
 
 
随着风电后市场不断发展成熟,整个运维行业将向更加专业化、精细化、高效和可靠的方向发展。加上随着风电运维管理的标准化和专业化的逐步推进,将来风电运维服务正在向预防以及预测性的方向逐渐过渡。而在市场放量增长趋势下,拥有核心竞争价值的企业无疑将在风电运维领域得到全面展现。
 
As the wind power market continues to mature, the entire operation and maintenance industry will be more specialized, refined, efficient and reliable direction. With the development of standardization and specialization of wind power operation and maintenance management, wind power operation and maintenance service is gradually transiting to the direction of prevention and prediction in the future. Under the trend of market growth, enterprises with core competitive value will undoubtedly be fully displayed in the field of wind power operation and maintenance.

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