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5G产业链蕴藏万亿商机

作者:admin  日期:2018-10-29 11:39  人气:
近段时间,关于5G商用接近落地的消息不断传来。今年6月,华为轮值董事长徐直军在上海世界移动大会上宣布,华为将于2018年9月30日推出基于非独立组网(NSA)的全套5G商用网络解决方案,2019年3月30日推出基于独立组网(SA)的5G商用系统。除了5G网络产品的时间表,华为将于2019年推出支持5G的麒麟芯片,并于2019年6月推出支持5G的智能手机。
 
Recently, news about 5G's commercial landing is coming. In June, Xu Zhijun, Huawei's rotating chairman, announced at the Shanghai World Mobile Congress that Huawei would launch a complete set of 5G commercial network solutions based on Independent Networking (NSA) on September 30, 2018 and a 5G commercial system based on Independent Networking (SA) on March 30, 2019. In addition to the timetable for 5G networking products, Huawei will launch a 5G-enabled Kirin chip in 2019 and a 5G-enabled smartphone in June 2019.
 
 
 
 
 
此外,中兴通讯近期也顺利完成中国电信在雄安、苏州的5G试验网第一阶段测试,高通和大唐移动按照IMT-2020(5G)推进组发布的5G技术研发试验第三阶段规范完成5G新空口互操作性测试(IODT),爱立信在工信部信通院实验室和怀柔外场完成了5G非独立组网NSA架构下的外场端到端测试。
 
In addition, ZTE has recently successfully completed the first phase of China Telecom's 5G test network in Xiong'an and Suzhou. Qualcomm and Datang Mobile have completed the new 5G air interoperability test (IODT) according to the third phase specification of the 5G technology development test issued by IMT-2020 (5G) propulsion group. Ericsson has completed the 5G new air interoperability test (IODT) in the laboratory of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Huairou Wai. The field has completed the field end to end test under the 5G independent network NSA architecture.
 
 
 
从这些巨头的动作来看,5G商用落地已经呼之欲出,因此不少声音认为,2019年很可能迎来真正意义上的5G元年。在这种预期下,近期5G概念板块的股价表现在A股“跌跌不休”的大环境下堪称亮眼。
 
From the action of these giants, 5G commercial landing has been eager to speak out, so many voices believe that 2019 is likely to usher in the true meaning of the 5G year. Under this kind of anticipation, the recent 5G concept plate's stock price performance in the A share "drops unceasingly" under the environment can be called eye-catching.
 
 
 
那么,5G板块是否有望在A股的凄风苦雨中成为难得的避风港?5G产业链上有哪些上市公司,各自的投资逻辑又是什么?哪些公司真正受益于5G商用落地,哪些公司纯属蹭热点炒作?
 
So, whether the 5G plate is expected to become a rare haven in the bitter storms of A shares? What are the listed companies in the 5G industrial chain and their respective investment logic? Which companies really benefit from the commercial landing of 5G, which companies are purely hot speculation?
 
 
 
《投资者报》就A股5G板块上市公司展开探讨,以期为投资者提供参考。
 
The investor newspaper discusses the listed companies of A share 5G board, with a view to provide reference for investors.
 
 
 
5G或再次改变通信业格局
 
5G or changing the communications industry again
 
 
 
通信行业可能是最近20年来“改朝换代”最为频繁的领域,手机刚刚开始兴起时的霸主摩托罗拉、诺基亚等品牌,如今已经难觅踪影。随着3G时代到来,苹果、三星等智能手机品牌在全球范围内高歌猛进;国内市场上,依靠运营商渠道低价销售的“中华酷联”(中兴、华为、酷派、联想)也占据了一定份额。
 
The telecommunications industry is probably the most frequent area of "dynastic change" in the last 20 years. The dominant brands such as Motorola and Nokia, which were just beginning to emerge from mobile phones, are now hard to find. With the advent of the 3G era, smartphone brands such as Apple, Samsung and so on are booming globally; in the domestic market, China Cool Union (ZTE, Huawei, Cool School, Lenovo), which relies on operators to sell at low prices, also occupies a certain share.
 
 
 
而4G时代以来,国产手机厂商从早期的低价策略中突围,华为、VIVO、OPPO等国产手机在国内市场上大行其道,华为更是异军突起,在过去一向被外资品牌垄断的高端智能手机市场上站稳了脚跟。
 
Since the 4G era, domestic mobile phone manufacturers have broken through from the early low-price strategy. Huawei, VIVO, OPPO and other domestic mobile phones have become popular in the domestic market. Huawei is even more prominent. In the past, it has been monopolized by foreign brands in the high-end smartphone market.
 
 
 
与4G网络广泛应用相伴而来的是新商业模式的兴起。由于4G网络相对3G来说访问速度更快更稳定,才有了直播、短视频、移动支付、移动生活服务、共享经济等对移动网络有更高要求的商业模式出现,也才有王者荣耀、阴阳师、吃鸡等更“重度”的手机平台游戏风生水起,更不用说借助更快速的网络,移动网络用户呈现爆发式增长。据比达咨询数据,2017年移动网民用户规模已达到7.5亿人,预计2018年移动网民用户规模将达到7.8亿人。在此基础上,各种移动应用、基于移动社交平台的商业模式层出不穷。
 
With the widespread application of 4G network, the rise of new business mode is coming. Because 4G networks are faster and more stable than 3G, there are more demanding business models for mobile networks, such as live broadcasting, short video, mobile payment, mobile life services, shared economy, and so on. There are also more "heavy" mobile platform games such as King Glory, Yin and Yang division, chicken eating, etc., which have sprung up, not to mention. With the help of faster networks, mobile Internet users show explosive growth. According to Bida, the number of mobile Internet users in 2017 has reached 750 million, and the number of mobile Internet users is expected to reach 780 million in 2018. On this basis, various mobile applications and mobile social platform business models emerge one after another.
 
 
 
那么,5G的到来又会为我们带来什么样的影响?
 
Then, what impact will the arrival of 5G bring to us?
 
 
 
5G(5th-generation)是第五代移动通信技术的简称,但与4G、3G、2G不同的是,5G并不是独立的、全新的无线接入技术,而是对现有无线接入技术(包括2G、3G、4G和WiFi)的技术演进,以及一些新增的补充性无线接入技术集成后解决方案的总称。
 
5G (5th-generation) is the abbreviation of the 5th generation mobile communication technology, but unlike 4G, 3G and 2G, 5G is not an independent, new wireless access technology, but the evolution of existing wireless access technology (including 2G, 3G, 4G and WiFi) and the aggregate of some new complementary wireless access technology integrated solutions. Say.
 
 
 
5G意味着网络速度更快、时延更低、连接数更多。同时由于引入了更强的加密算法,安全机制也变得更强。
 
5G means faster network, lower latency and more connections. At the same time, because of the introduction of stronger encryption algorithm, the security mechanism becomes stronger.
 
 
 
从应用角度来看,5G为万物互联打下了基础,未来有可能每一件物体都有传感器,而每一个5G终端都可能成为一个个连接点,实现数据交互。简单地说,4G是移动互联网兴盛的基础,而5G则可能是未来发展物联网、人工智能、智慧城市等各种应用的基础。新的技术革命如人工智能,新的智能硬件平台如VR/AR、新的出行技术如无人驾驶,新的场景万物互联等颠覆性应用,在5G发展到相对成熟的阶段时,才有可能得以蓬勃发展。
 
From the application point of view, 5G lays the foundation for the interconnection of all things. In the future, there may be sensors for every object, and each 5G terminal may become a connecting point to realize data interaction. Simply put, 4G is the basis for the prosperity of the mobile Internet, and 5G may be the basis for the future development of the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, smart cities and other applications. New technological revolutions such as artificial intelligence, new intelligent hardware platforms such as VR / AR, new travel technologies such as unmanned driving, new scenes such as the interconnection of all things subversive applications, in the development of 5G to a relatively mature stage, it is possible to flourish.
 
 
 
从市场前景来看,随着5G应用大规模铺开,未来3至5年将为产业链带来数万亿商机。根据中国信通院《5G经济社会影响白皮书》预测,2030年由5G带动的直接产出和间接产出将分别达到6.3万亿元和10.6万亿元。
 
From the perspective of market prospects, with the large-scale spread of 5G applications, the next three to five years will bring trillions of business opportunities to the industrial chain. According to the "5G Economic and Social Impact White Paper" of the China Telecom Institute, the direct and indirect output driven by 5G will reach 6.3 trillion yuan and 10.6 trillion yuan respectively by 2030.
 
 
 
在直接产出方面,按照2020年5G正式商用算起,预计当年将带动约4840亿元的直接产出,2025年、2030年将分别增长到3.3万亿元、6.3万亿元,10年间的年均复合增长率为29%。
 
In terms of direct output, according to the official commercial calculation of 5G in 2020, it is estimated that the direct output of 484 billion yuan will be driven in that year. In 2025 and 2030, it will increase to 3.3 trillion yuan and 6.3 trillion yuan, respectively. The annual compound growth rate of 10 years will be 29%.
 
 
 
在间接产出方面,2020年、2025年、2030年,5G将分别带动1.2万亿元、6.3万亿元和10.6万亿元,年均复合增长率为24%。
 
In terms of indirect output, in 2020, 2025 and 2030, 5G will drive 1.2 trillion yuan, 6.3 trillion yuan and 10.6 trillion yuan respectively, with an average compound annual growth rate of 24%.
 
 
 
5G产业链蕴藏万亿商机
 
5G industry chain holds trillions of business opportunities
 
 
 
5G是推动移动技术进入通用领域的催化剂,也是通信领域自上而下竞争格局重塑之机。因此,5G已是全球通信产业必争之地。
 
5G is the catalyst to push mobile technology into the general field, and it is also the opportunity to reshape the top-down competition pattern in the field of communications. Therefore, 5G has become a battleground for the global communications industry.
 

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