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华商基金谈投资家居行业:外资增配 行业集中度

作者:admin  日期:2018-10-29 14:26  人气:
2018年以来家居板块持续调整,近日出现好转迹象。据Wind资讯数据显示,截至8月27日收盘,家居用品指数近6个交易日累计上涨4.03%。
 
Since 2018, the home sector has continued to adjust, and signs of improvement have come up recently. The household goods index rose 4.03% in the six trading days to the close of August 27, according to Wind data.
 
 
 
华商基金研究员崔志鹏对此分析表示,商品房销售数据下滑、竞争格局恶化、精装房占比提升成为家居板块今年以来持续调整的主因。
 
Cui Zhipeng, a researcher at the Chinese Business Fund, said that the declining sales data of commercial housing, the deterioration of competition pattern, and the increase in the proportion of hardcover housing have become the main reasons for the continuous adjustment of the home sector this year.
 
 
 
 
 
首先,从2017年下半年开始,商品房销售一直处于较低迷状态,传导至家居行业后,在一定程度上限制了家具购买需求,进而导致家具销售数据低于预期;其次,2017年以来大批定制家具集中上市和加速开店导致行业竞争加剧。目前看,2018年上半年家具产品终端价格已经表现出松动迹象,不排除销售增速下滑后有龙头企业为扩张规模打价格战的可能性;此外,目前部分龙头房企的商品房越来越多以精装房形式呈现,进一步压缩了家具的零售份额。在精装房占比不断提升的情况下,橱柜、木门、瓷砖、地板等硬装类产品零售市场或将受到影响。
 
First of all, since the second half of 2007, commercial housing sales have been in a downturn, conducting to the household industry, to a certain extent, limiting the demand for furniture purchases, resulting in lower than expected furniture sales data; secondly, since 2017, mass customization furniture centralized listing and accelerated store opening has led to intensified competition in the industry. At present, in the first half of 2018, the terminal prices of furniture products have shown signs of loosening, not excluding the possibility of leading enterprises to fight for expansion after the decline in sales growth; in addition, some leading real estate enterprises are increasingly in the form of hardcover houses, further reducing the retail share of furniture. In the case of increasing proportion of hardbound rooms, cabinets, wooden doors, tiles, floors and other hard-bound products retail market may be affected.
 
 
 
在华商基金研究员崔志鹏看来,虽然短期制约家居板块的若干因素或继续存在,但从中长期角度来看,国内家居市场空间巨大,生产规模效应和品牌效应会逐渐显现,优秀的家居龙头未来发展潜力可期。
 
In the view of Cui Zhipeng, a researcher of China Business Fund, although some factors that restrict the home sector in the short term may continue to exist, but in the medium and long term, the domestic home market has a huge space, the production scale effect and brand effect will gradually appear, and the future development potential of excellent home faucets is promising.
 
 
 
“能够看到,今年以来外资对于家居板块的配置有所增加,主要是看好家居板块在中长期集中度的提升。”华商基金研究员崔志鹏认为,目前家居行业市场空间大约为8000亿,但竞争格局相对较分散。相信随着行业规模效应和品牌力的提升,行业集中度提升空间相对广阔,家居行业有望出现收入几百亿甚至上千亿的龙头企业。
 
"We can see that the allocation of foreign investment for the home plate has increased since this year, mainly optimistic about the improvement of the concentration of the home plate in the medium and long term." According to Cui Zhipeng, a researcher at the Chinese Business Fund, the market space of the household industry is about 800 billion yuan at present, but the competition pattern is relatively scattered. It is believed that with the promotion of industry scale effect and brand strength, there is a relatively broad space for industry concentration, and the household industry is expected to emerge leading enterprises with tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of dollars in income.

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