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猪价回暖或带动6月CPI小幅上行 未来物价走势如何

作者:admin  日期:2018-12-07 16:06  人气:
猪价回暖或带动6月CPI小幅上行。未来物价走势如何?
 
The price of pork has been rising or driving CPI up slightly in June. What is the future price trend?
 
 
 
记者综合多方预测,即将公布的2018年6月居民消费价格指数(CPI),可能在猪肉价格回暖的带动下小幅上涨。多位专家表示,展望下半年,物价将维持在较低水平运行,通胀因素不会对我国货币政策操作形成明显制约。
 
Reporters forecast that the upcoming consumer price index (CPI) in June 2018 may rise slightly due to the revival of pork prices. Many experts said that in the second half of the year, prices will remain at a relatively low level, and inflation factors will not significantly restrict the operation of China's monetary policy.
 
 
 
6月进入夏季,蔬菜供应充分,带动食用农产品价格持续回落。分品种看,蔬菜和食用油价格持续回落,肉类价格稳中略升。交通银行首席经济学家连平表示,预计6月食品价格环比继续回落,同期国内非食品价格整体平稳,初步判断6月CPI同比涨幅可能为1.7%,较上月小幅回落。
 
In the summer of June, the vegetable supply is sufficient, driving the prices of edible agricultural products to continue to fall. In terms of varieties, the prices of vegetable and edible oil continued to fall, while the prices of meat rose steadily and slightly. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that food prices were expected to continue to fall in June, while domestic non-food prices remained stable in the same period. It was preliminary judged that CPI rose by 1.7% in June compared with the same period last month, a slight decline.
 
 
 
也有一些专家认为,CPI近期可能小幅回升。兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委认为,6月中上旬猪肉价格显着回升,成品油同比涨幅继续扩大,有望带动CPI同比上升至2.2%。
 
Some experts also believe that CPI may recover slightly in the near future. Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Societe Generale Bank, believes that pork prices recovered significantly in the first half of June, and that the increase of refined oil continued to expand year-on-year, which is expected to drive CPI up to 2.2*year-on-year.
 
 
 
CPI食品项中,猪肉与蔬菜价格具有较高波动性。其中,猪肉在食品项中的统计权重近10%,猪肉价格对CPI的整体贡献也居于首位。对于后期猪肉价格的走势,广发证券资深宏观分析师贺骁束表示,育肥猪配合饲料整体需求已出现拐点,代表二季度以来生猪出栏量开始下降;在环保限产+行业集中度提高的背景下,猪肉价格在三季度存在阶段性修复的可能,从而成为驱动CPI进一步上行的超预期因素。
 
Pork and vegetable prices fluctuate highly in CPI*food items. Pork*s statistical weight in food items is nearly 10%, and pork*s price contributes most to CPI. 对于后期猪肉价格的走势,广发证券资深宏观分析师贺骁束表示,育肥猪配合饲料整体需求已出现拐点,代表二季度以来生猪出栏量开始下降;在环保限产+行业集中度提高的背景下,猪肉价格在三季度存在阶段性修复的可能 As a result, it has become an unexpected factor driving CPI to go up further.
 
 
 
招商证券首席宏观分析师谢亚轩也表示,猪价低迷是近几个月食品项持续疲弱的主要原因,其拖累有望减弱。猪粮比自今年3月初跌落盈亏平衡点,养殖利润更是自2月开始进入亏损区间。随着近期猪肉价格出现企稳反弹迹象,叠加去年下半年猪价因环保拆迁等因素仅出现较为温和的反弹,食品项的拖累有望进一步减弱。
 
Xie Yaxuan, chief macroeconomic analyst of China Merchants Securities, also said that the low price of pork is the main reason for the continued weakness of food items in recent months, and its drag is expected to weaken. Pig grain has dropped to a break even point since the beginning of March this year, and farming profits began to enter the deficit area since February. With the recent signs of stabilization and rebound in pork prices, superimposed on last year's second half of the year, pork prices only showed a more moderate rebound due to environmental demolition and other factors. The drag on food items is expected to further weaken.
 
 
 
未来物价走势如何?
 
What is the future price trend?
 
 
 
连平表示,今年上半年,CPI整体平稳,虽然年初反弹至2%以上,但近两个月同比涨幅又回落到2%以下,预计上半年CPI同比涨幅平均在2%左右。三四季度猪肉价格可能企稳回升,也许会带动食品价格小幅上升;非食品价格则可能保持基本稳定。在国内需求稳中趋缓、狭义货币M1增速持续走低,以及PPI下半年可能有所回落的背景下,未来CPI缺乏显着反弹的动力。从翘尾因素来看,7月之后将显着回落,因此下半年通胀水平大幅上涨的可能性较小。预测全年CPI同比上涨2%左右,物价维持较低水平,也为国内货币政策提供了更大的操作空间。
 
Lian Ping said that in the first half of this year, CPI was stable as a whole. Although it rebounded to more than 2% at the beginning of this year, the year-on-year increase in the past two months has fallen back to less than 2%. It is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI in the first half of this year will average be about 2%. Pork prices may stabilize and recover in the third and fourth quarters, which may lead to a small increase in food prices, while non-food prices may remain basically stable.* Against the background of steady domestic demand, slow growth of narrow currency M1 and possible decline of PPI in the second half of the year, CPI lacks the momentum to rebound significantly in the future. Judging from the tail-warping factor, it will decline significantly after July, so the possibility of a sharp rise in inflation in the second half of the year is small. It is predicted that CPI will increase by about 2% year-on-year and prices will remain at a low level. It also provides more room for domestic monetary policy to operate.
 
 
 
谢亚轩也表示,无论从全球整体趋势看,还是从细项数据的预估情况看,预计2018年CPI同比增速将较2017年有所抬升,今年CPI料将保持温和增长,目前通胀因素无法对我国货币政策操作形成明显的制约。
 
Xie Yaxuan also said that in terms of global trends and detailed data, the CPI growth rate in 2018 is expected to be higher than that in 2017. This year, CPI is expected to maintain a moderate growth. Currently, inflation factors can not significantly restrict the operation of China's monetary policy.

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