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2018年1-5月 全国房地产市场运行呈现以下特点

作者:admin  日期:2018-11-05 17:05  人气:
2018年1-5月,全国房地产市场运行呈现以下特点:一是全国房地产开发景气指数在连续回落3个月后开始回升;二是房地产开发投资增速尽管略有下滑但保持3个月高增速;三是全国房地产开发企业到位资金增速有所回升,资金面回暖。
 
From January to May 2018, the operation of the national real estate market showed the following characteristics: first, the national real estate development boom index began to rise after three consecutive months of decline; second, although the growth rate of investment in real estate development declined slightly, it maintained a three-month high growth rate; third, the growth rate of capital in place of the national real estate development enterprises has rebounded, and the capital surface has warmed up. .
 
 
 
 
 
一、国房景气指数变动情况
 
I. Changes in the housing boom index
 
 
 
2018年以来,全国房地产开发景气指数在连续小幅回落3个月后,于5月份开始回升。国家统计局发布的数据显示:2018年5月份,“国房景气指数”回升至101.58,同比提高0.4点,比2018年4月份提高0.21点。全国房地产开发景气指数继续处于95至105点的适度水平区间。
 
Since 2018, the national real estate development boom index began to rise in May after a slight decline for three consecutive months. Statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in May 2018, the "National Housing Prosperity Index" rose to 101.58, up 0.4 points from the same period last year and 0.21 points from April 2018. The national real estate development boom index continued at a moderate level of 95 to 105 points.
 
 
 
注:国家统计局从2017年起发布的房地产开发景气指数是基期修定后的值。全国房地产开发景气指数遵循经济周期波动的理论,以景气循环理论与景气循环分析方法为依据,运用时间序列、多元统计、计量经济分析方法,以房地产开发投资为基准指标,选取了房地产投资、资金、面积、销售有关指标,剔除季节因素和随机因素的影响,采用增长率循环方法编制而成。国房景气指数选择2000年为基年,将其增长水平定为100。通常情况下,国房景气指数100点是最合适的水平,95至105点之间为适度水平,95以下为较低水平,105以上为偏高水平。
 
Note: the prosperity index of real estate development released by the National Bureau of statistics from 2017 is the value after revision. The national real estate development boom index follows the theory of economic cycle fluctuation. Based on the boom cycle theory and the boom cycle analysis method, using time series, multivariate statistics and econometric analysis methods, and taking the investment in real estate development as the benchmark index, the relevant indexes of real estate investment, capital, area and sales are selected. Eliminating seasonal and stochastic factors, the growth rate cycle method was used. The housing boom index chose 2000 as the base year and set its growth level to 100. Usually, the 100-point National Housing Prosperity Index is the most appropriate level, between 95 and 105 points is a moderate level, below 95 is a low level, above 105 is a high level.
 
 
 
二、房地产开发投资情况
 
Two. Investment in real estate development
 
 
 
2018年1-5月,房地产开发投资增速较前4个月略有下滑,保持3个月超过10%的高增速。国家统计局发布的数据显示:2018年1-5月,全国完成房地产开发投资41,420.3亿元,同比增长10.2%,增幅同比提高1.4个百分点,比2018年1-4月回落0.1个百分点。
 
From January to May 2018, the growth rate of investment in real estate development slightly declined compared with the previous four months, maintaining a high growth rate of more than 10% in three months. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to May 2018, China's investment in real estate development reached 41,420.3 billion yuan, an increase of 10.2% over the same period last year, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the same period last year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points over January to April 2018.
 
 
 
从供应结构来看,2018年1-5月,在房地产开发投资中,商品住宅完成投资29,037.3亿元,同比增长14.2%,增幅同比提高4.2个百分点,与2018年1-4月持平,占房地产开发投资的比重为70.1%;办公楼投资2,185.1亿元,同比下降7.8%,降幅比2018年1-4月扩大2.7个百分点,而上年同期为增长5.1%,所占比重为5.3%;商业营业用房投资5,149.6亿元,同比下降9.3%,降幅比2018年1-4月扩大1.5个百分点,而上年同期为增长5.9%,所占比重为12.4%;其他投资5,048.3亿元,同比增长22.4%,增幅同比提高14.7个百分点,比2018年1-4月提高2.5个百分点,所占比重为12.2%。
 
From the perspective of supply structure, from January to May 2018, commercial residential investment in real estate development reached 29,037.3 billion yuan, an increase of 14.2% over the same period last year, an increase of 4.2 percentage points, which was equal to January to April 2018, accounting for 70.1% of real estate development investment; office investment reached 2151.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.8% over the same period last year. From January to April, it increased by 2.7 percentage points, up from 5.1% in the same period last year, accounting for 5.3%; commercial housing investment was 514.96 billion yuan, down 9.3% from the same period last year, down 1.5 percentage points from January to April 2018, up 5.9% from the same period last year, accounting for 12.4%; other investment was 504.83 billion yuan, up 22.4% from the same period last year. It was 14.7 percentage points higher than the 1-4 percentage point increase in 2018, accounting for 2.5 percentage points, accounting for 12.2%.
 
 
 
从区域分布上来看,2018年1-5月,东部地区完成房地产开发投资22,992.3亿元,同比增长11.3%,增幅同比提高2.9个百分点,与2018年1-4月持平,占全国房地产开发投资的比重为55.5%;中部地区完成投资8,894.6亿元,同比增长13.3%,增幅同比回落3.6个百分点,比2018年1-4月回落1.5个百分点,占全国房地产开发投资的比重为21.5%;西部地区完成投资8,136.1亿元,同比增长2.8%,增幅同比回落4.2个百分点,比2018年1-4月回落0.4个百分点,占全国房地产开发投资的比重为19.6%;东北地区完成投资1,397.2亿元,同比增长19.9%,增幅比2018年1-4月提高9.2个百分点,而上年同期为下降16.1%,占全国房地产开发投资的比重为3.4%。
 
In terms of regional distribution, from January to May 2018, the investment in real estate development in the eastern region reached 2,299.23 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3% over the same period last year, an increase of 2.9 percentage points, which was equal to that in January-April 2018, accounting for 55.5% of the national real estate development investment; and in the central region, the investment in real estate development reached 89.46 billion yuan, an increase of 13.3% over the same period last year. It fell 3.6 percentage points, 1.5 percentage points from January to April 2018, accounting for 21.5% of the national real estate development investment; completed investment in the western region reached 813.61 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from January to April 2018, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from January to April 2018, accounting for 19.6% of the national real estate development investment; Northeast China completed investment of 139.72 billion yuan, an increase of 19.9% over the same period last year, an increase of 9.2 percentage points over January-April 2018, a decrease of 16.1% over the same period last year, accounting for 3.4% of the national real estate development investment.
 
 
 
三、房地产开发企业资金来源情况
 
Three. Sources of funds for real estate development enterprises
 
 
 
2018年1-5月,房地产开发企业到位资金增速较前4个月有所回升,房企资金来源呈现改善。其中,国内贷款增速继续下滑,而自筹资金、定金及预收款和个人按揭贷款增速均较前4个月有所回升。国家统计局发布的数据显示:2018年1-5月,全国房地产开发企业到位资金62,003.2亿元,同比增长5.1%,增幅虽同比回落4.8个百分点,但比2018年1-4月提高3.0个百分点。其中,国内贷款10,200.8亿元,同比下降2.8%,降幅比2018年1-4月扩大1.2个百分点,而上年同期为增长17.3%;利用外资21.4亿元,同比下降76.2%,降幅比2018年1-4月缩小1.4个百分点,而上年同期为增长115.1%;企业自筹资金19,472.9亿元,同比增长8.1%,增幅比2018年1-4月提高3.3个百分点,而上年同期为下降3.4%;定金及预收款20,121.9亿元,同比增长12.7%,增幅虽同比回落7.6个百分点,但比2018年1-4月提高4.4个百分点;个人按揭贷款9,249.6亿元,同比下降3.6%,降幅比2018年1-4月缩小3.1个百分点,而上年同期为增长8.6%;其他到位资金2,936.5亿元,同比下降0.3%,降幅比2018年1-4月缩小5.1个百分点。
 
From January to May 2018, the growth rate of in-place funds of real estate development enterprises has rebounded from the previous four months, and the source of funds of real estate enterprises has improved. Among them, the growth rate of domestic loans continued to decline, while the growth rate of self-financing, deposits and advances, and personal mortgage loans all rebounded from the previous four months. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May 2018, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises nationwide amounted to 62,003.2 billion yuan, an increase of 5.1% over the previous year. Although the growth rate fell by 4.8 percentage points, it increased by 3.0 percentage points compared with January to April 2018. Among them, domestic loans amounted to 1020.8 billion yuan, down by 2.8% year on year, an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared with January-April 2018, and an increase of 17.3% over the same period last year; foreign capital utilization amounted to 2.14 billion yuan, a decrease of 76.2% over the same period last year, a decrease of 14 percentage points over January-April 2018, an increase of 11.51% over the same period last year; and self-financing of enterprises amounted to 1,947.29 billion yuan, an increase over the same period last year. The growth rate was 8.1%, 3.3 percentage points higher than that in January-April 2018, and 3.4% lower than that in the same period last year; the deposit and advance receipts were 2,121.19 billion yuan, up 12.7% from the same period last year. Although the growth rate fell by 7.6 percentage points, it was 4.4 percentage points higher than that in January-April 2018; the personal mortgage loans were 924.96 billion yuan, down by 3.6% from the same period last year, down from January-April 2018. It is less than 3.1 percentage points, up 8.6% in the same period last year, while the other funds in place are 293.65 billion yuan, down 0.3% year on year, down 5.1 percentage points from January to April 2018.

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