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军工行业月报:军工行业估值水平仍相对较高

作者:admin  日期:2018-11-05 17:08  人气:
川财月观点
 
Sichuan Financial month view
 
 
 
我们认为,当前军工板块存在较好的配置机会,主要理由如下:(1)估值处于历史低位。截止2018 年7 月6 日,军工板块估值(整体法,剔除负值)为56倍,明显低于2010 年以来的历史平均水平(67 倍),板块具备反弹空间;(2)行业基本面改善。2018 年随着军改逐步落地、国防预算超预期增长,军工板块行业基本面有明显改善。2018 年上半年全军武器装备采购网已发布234 次采购公告,明显高于往年同期水平,侧面印证军工行业基本面的改善。(3)改革走向深入。兵装58 改制方案于5 月获批、中央全面深化改革委员会第三次会议于7 月6 日召开,我们认为军民融合、科研院所改制、资产证券化及军品定价机制等系列改革有望进一步加快。建议围绕订单改善明显和体制改革两条主线进行投资。一是军品订单改善明显,关注航空板块投资机会,相关标的有中航沈飞、中直股份、中航电子、中航机电、航发动力等;二是体制改革相关标的,关注军民融合发展投资机会,如光威复材、振芯科技、新研股份、中光防雷、中航光电、航天电子、国睿科技、四创电子等。
 
We believe that there are good allocation opportunities for the current military sector, the main reasons are as follows: (1) Valuation is at a historic low. As of July 6, 2018, the military sector valuation (holistic method, excluding negative value) is 56 times, which is significantly lower than the historical average level since 2010 (67 times), and the sector has room to rebound; (2) the industry fundamentals have improved. In 2018, with the gradual landing of the military reform and the unexpected growth of the national defense budget, the basic aspects of the military industry sector have improved significantly. In the first half of 2018, 234 procurement announcements have been issued by the Army Weapons and Equipment Procurement Network, which is significantly higher than the same period in previous years. This confirms the improvement of the basic aspects of the military industry. (3) deepening reform. The reform plan of military uniform 58 was approved in May and the third meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensive Deepening Reform was held on July 6. We believe that the series of reforms such as civil-military integration, restructuring of scientific research institutes, asset securitization and pricing mechanism of military products are expected to be further accelerated. It is recommended to invest around the two main lines of order improvement and institutional reform. First, military orders have improved significantly, focusing on investment opportunities in the aviation sector. The related targets include China Airlines Shenyang Airlines, Zhongzhi Stock, China Airlines Electronics, China Airlines Electronics, China Airlines Mechatronics, and Aviation Power. Second, the related targets of the system reform are to focus on investment opportunities of civil-military integration, such as Guangwei Composite, Zhenxin Science and Technology, Xinyan Stock, Zhongguang Lightning Protection and China Airlines. Photoelectric, aerospace electronics, national Rui technology, four innovation electronics and so on.
 
 
 
市场表现
 
Market performance
 
 
 
6 月上证综指下降8.01%,深证成指下降8.90%,创业板指下降7.86%,沪深300 下降7.66%,军工指数下降8.23%。个股方面,月涨幅前五的个股为星网宇达、新余国科、内蒙一机、中航沈飞、中航机电,涨幅分别为24.54%、20.74%、9.92%、6.22%、2.57%。跌幅前五的个股为雷科防务、中国应急、*ST 船舶、中航高科、中船防务,跌幅分别为29.17%、22.50%、22.42%、21.05%、20.45%。
 
In June, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 8.01%, the Shenzhen Composite Index by 8.90%, the GEM Index by 7.86%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 7.66%, and the Military Industry Index by 8.23%. In terms of individual stocks, the top five stocks with monthly gains were Starnet Yuda, Xinyu Guoke, Inner Mongolia Aircraft, China Airlines Shenfei and China Aviation Machinery and Electricity, with gains of 24.54%, 20.74%, 9.92%, 6.22% and 2.57%, respectively. The top five stocks declined were Leike Defense, China Emergency Response, * ST Ship, China Aviation High Technology and China Ship Defense, with declines of 29.17%, 22.50%, 22.42%, 21.05% and 20.45%, respectively.
 
 
 
行业动态
 
Industry dynamics
 
 
 
朝美领导人签署联合声明 确定半岛无核和平目标。6 月12 日下午,在新加坡圣淘沙岛上的嘉佩乐酒店,朝鲜国务委员会委员长金正恩和美国总统特朗普微笑着交换签字文件,在闪光灯下再次握手。金正恩和特朗普当天在这里举行朝美在任领导人历史上首次会晤,并签署了一份联合声明。(新华社)习近平会见美国国防部长马蒂斯。国家主席习近平6 月27 日在人民大会堂会见了来访的美国国防部长马蒂斯。(新华社)
 
The leaders of the DPRK and the United States signed a joint statement to confirm the goal of a nuclear free peace on the peninsula. On the afternoon of June 12, Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Council of Korea, and President Trump of the United States exchanged signature documents with a smile and shook hands again under the flashlight at the Gapelle Hotel on Sentosa Island, Singapore. Kim Jong-un and Trump met here for the first time in the history of the incumbent leaders of the DPRK and the United States and signed a joint statement. (Xinhua) Xi Jinping met with US Defense Secretary Matisse. President Xi Jinping met with visiting US Defense Secretary Matisse in the Great Hall of the people in June 27th. (Xinhua News Agency)
 
 
 
公司公告
 
Company announcement
 
 
 
中航电子(600372):公司发布股东增持公司股份及后续增持计划公告,公司股东中国航空工业集团有限公司于2018 年6 月20 日上午通过上海证券交易所交易系统增持公司股份2,381,917 股,并计划未来6 个月内,通过上海证券交易所交易系统增持公司股份,增持价格不高于每股15 元,增持总金额不低于5,000 万元,且不超过20,000 万元人民币(含本次已增持股份)。
 
China Aviation Electronics (600372): The company issued the announcement of shareholders'shareholding increase and follow-up plan. The shareholders of China Aviation Industry Group Co., Ltd. increased 2,381,917 shares of the company through the Shanghai Stock Exchange trading system on the morning of June 20, 2018, and planned to submit them through the Shanghai Stock Exchange within the next six months. Easy Systems has increased its share holdings at a price not higher than 15 yuan per share, with a total increase of not less than 50 million yuan and not more than 20 million yuan (including the shares that have been increased this time).
 
 
 
风险提示:政策执行不及预期;军工行业估值水平仍相对较高。
 
Risk warning: policy implementation is not as good as expected; the valuation level of the military industry is still relatively high.

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