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三部委联合下发电价政策 未来光伏行业有望回暖

作者:admin  日期:2018-11-17 15:55  人气:
国家发改委等三部委今天联合发布的一则通知,让整个光伏行业为之沸腾。
 
A notice issued jointly by the three ministries and commissions of the national development and Reform Commission made the whole PV industry boil.
 
 
 
通知明确,将以6月30日为界限,给予光伏新政一个月的缓冲期。业内认为,这是对“531”新政的补救性政策,也意味着未来光伏政策有望回暖。
 
The notice is clear that the year June 30th will be the deadline for giving the new deal a buffer period of one month. The industry believes that this is a remedial policy for the "531" New Deal, which also means that the future photovoltaic policy is expected to recover.
 
 
 
户用光伏将执行“630”电价政策
 
Household photovoltaic will implement the "630" tariff policy
 
 
 
这份《关于2018年光伏发电有关事项说明的通知》,明确了三点:
 
The notice on matters related to photovoltaic power generation in 2018 clarified three points:
 
 
 
1、在5月31日前备案、6月30日前并网的户用光伏项目,将被列入国家补贴支持的分布式光伏规模管理范围,标杆上网电价和度电补贴标准保持不变,将得到0.37元/kWh的财政补贴。
 
1. Household photovoltaic projects registered before May 31 and connected before June 30 will be included in the scope of distributed photovoltaic scale management supported by the state subsidy. Benchmarking grid-connected tariff and power subsidy standards will remain unchanged and will receive a financial subsidy of 0.37 yuan/kWh.
 
 
 
2、对于已开工未并网的户用自然人分布式光伏项目,明确给予户用光伏一个月的缓冲期。
 
2. For the residential natural person distributed photovoltaic projects which have not been connected to the grid, a one-month buffer period for residential photovoltaic is clearly given.
 
 
 
3、对于地面普通光伏电站项目,已经纳入2017年及以前建设规模范围、且在今年6月30日前并网投运的普通光伏电站项目,执行2017年光伏电站标杆上网电价,属竞争配置的项目,执行竞争配置时确定的上网电价。
 
3. For the ground ordinary photovoltaic power plant project, it has been included in the scope of construction scale in 2017 and before, and put into operation before 30 June this year. The implementation of the 2017 benchmark grid-connected photovoltaic power plant price is a competitive configuration project, and the grid-connected power price determined in the implementation of the competitive configuration.
 
 
 
 
 
中国新能源电力投融资联盟秘书长彭澎向中证君表示,这个政策主要解决户用光伏在531之后630之前并网的这一个月的项目补贴指标问题。因为“531政策”是当天发布当天生效的,对于531之前已经备案的用户光伏投资者损失比较大的。
 
Peng Peng, secretary-general of China New Energy and Electricity Investment and Finance Alliance, said that the policy mainly addresses the issue of project subsidy targets for household photovoltaic grid-connected projects in the month after 531 and before 630. Because the "531 Policy" came into effect on the day it was released, the loss of photovoltaic investors for users who had filed before 531 is relatively large.
 
 
 
此前我国光伏电价补贴调整通常以6月30日为界,“6·30”抢装潮已成为近年来行业普遍现象。今年5月31日到6月30日之间的这一个月补贴政策如何核算,此前一直未明确。
 
Prior to this, the adjustment of photovoltaic price subsidy in China usually took June 30 as the boundary, and the "6.30" rush to install has become a common phenomenon in the industry in recent years. How to calculate this month's subsidy policy from May 31st to June 30th has not been clear before.
 
 
 
彭澎认为,对于普通地面光伏电站,包括屋顶的商业分布式,整体政策并没有出现松动。后续政策仍然会以鼓励去补贴这个大方向为主,一方面目前光伏的组件成本还在继续下降,另一方面整体可再生能源附加费上涨的可能性不是很大。降电价还是当前的主流方向,政策大的转型基本是不存在的。
 
Peng Peng believes that for ordinary ground photovoltaic power plants, including the commercial distribution of roofs, the overall policy has not been loosened. Follow-up policies will still focus on encouraging subsidies. On the one hand, the cost of photovoltaic components continues to decline, on the other hand, the overall renewable energy surcharge is not likely to rise. The electricity price reduction is still the main direction of the current policy transformation.
 
 
 
“531”新政后光伏一夜入冬
 
After the "531" new deal, photovoltaic power overnight.
 
 
 
今年5月31日,发改委三部委曾联合印发《关于2018年光伏发电有关事项的通知》,被称为“531”光伏新政。
 
On May 31 this year, the three ministries and commissions of the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on Matters Relating to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018, known as the "531" New Photovoltaic Policy.
 
 
 
规模方面,暂不安排2018年普通光伏电站建设规模;分布式光伏项目指标额度控制在1000万千瓦左右规模,并明确各地5月31日(含)前并网的分布式光伏发电项目纳入国家认可的规模管理范围。
 
In terms of scale, the construction scale of ordinary photovoltaic power plants in 2018 is not scheduled for the time being; the quota of distributed photovoltaic projects is controlled at the scale of about 10 million kilowatts, and it is clear that the distributed photovoltaic power generation projects with grid-connected before May 31 will be included in the scope of scale management approved by the state.
 
 
 
电价方面,“5·31”新政指出,自发文之日起,新投运的、采用“自发自用、余电上网”模式的分布式光伏发电项目,全电量度电补贴标准降低0.05元,即补贴标准调整为每千瓦时0.32元(含税)。
 
In terms of electricity price, "5.31" New Deal points out that since the date of spontaneous writing, the new distributed photovoltaic power generation project, which adopts the mode of "spontaneous self-use and surplus power grid-connected", has reduced the total electricity metering subsidy standard by 0.05 yuan, i.e. the subsidy standard has been adjusted to 0.32 yuan per kilowatt-hour (including tax).
 
 
 
“531”新政一出,光伏行业“一夜入冬”。
 
"531" new deal, photovoltaic industry "overnight."
 
 
 
新政发布后的第一个交易日(6月4日),A股市场上光伏相关概念股纷纷跌停,光伏指数名列当日跌幅榜首位。此后,光伏指数一路下滑,从6月4日至今跌幅已达24.8%。光伏龙头隆基股份和通威股股价均下跌近40%。
 
On the first trading day (June 4) after the New Deal was issued, photovoltaic related conceptual stocks on the A-share market dropped and stopped one after another, and the photovoltaic index ranked first in the decline on that day. Since then, the PV index has slipped all the way, and has fallen by 24.8% since June 4th. The share price of Longji and Tongwei shares dropped by nearly 40%.
 
 
 
“531”新政对光伏行业造成的影响之大,从光储亿家整理的一些数据可见一斑:
 
The impact of the "531" New Deal on the photovoltaic industry can be seen from the data collated by hundreds of millions of optical storage companies.
 
 
 
1、企业净利润跳水
 
1, corporate net profit dive
 
 
 
“531”新政以来,A股中光伏上市公司开始上演股价跳水大戏。新政后第一个交易日,各大光伏概念上市公司市值一天蒸发257.95亿元,此后鲜有回暖迹象。
 
Since the "531" new deal, A listed companies in photovoltaic companies began to play a big diving stock price. On the first trading day after the New Deal, the market value of major photovoltaic concept listed companies evaporated 25.795 billion yuan a day, and there were few signs of recovery thereafter.
 
 
 
2、制造业大幅减产
 
2, the manufacturing industry has substantially reduced production.
 
 
 
新政以来,上游硅料、硅片开工率暴跌,大规模产能退出,价格跌无可跌。数据显示,国内硅料已有至少13家企业停产退出。
 
Since the new deal, upstream silicon materials and silicon chips have fallen sharply, and large-scale capacity has been withdrawn. Data show that at least 13 enterprises in China have stopped production.
 
 
 
3、欠薪裁员等负面新闻不断
 
3, negative news such as arrears of wages and layoffs.
 
 
 
停产、放假、欠薪、降价、变卖电站或自行宣布退出光伏行业,捱不过行业寒冬的企业纷纷以各种方式自保求生。
 
Businesses that can't survive the cold winter of the photovoltaic industry are trying to survive in various ways by shutting down production, vacation, wage arrears, price reduction, selling power plants or announcing their own withdrawal from the photovoltaic industry.
 
 
 
4、户用市场遭遇毁灭性打击
 
4, the household market suffered a devastating blow.
 
 
 
据行业协会调研数据显示,新政之后,全国户用光伏市场业务总量同比下降90-95%,从业经销商同比减少约80%。
 
According to the survey data of industry associations, after the New Deal, the total domestic photovoltaic market business decreased by 90-95% compared with the same period last year, and the number of practitioners and distributors decreased by about 80% compared with the same period last year.
 
 
 
2019年光伏政策或迎新变化
 
Photovoltaic policy or welcome change in 2019
 
 
 
在10月8日下午,国家发改委组织的光伏发电价格政策座谈会上,其实已经对此次通知做了相关预告。
 
In the afternoon of October 8, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the price policy of photovoltaic power generation. In fact, the announcement has been made in advance.
 
 
 
座谈会的焦点是指标和补贴问题。除了《通知》明确的过渡期补贴问题外,还讨论了关于目前户用光伏指标问题、2019年光伏指标和补贴标准,以及现有光伏电站补贴拖欠等问题。
 
The focus of the symposium is on indicators and subsidies. In addition to the issue of transitional subsidy specified in the Notice, the issues of current household photovoltaic indicators, photovoltaic indicators and subsidy standards in 2019, as well as the arrears of subsidy for existing photovoltaic power plants were also discussed.
 
 
 
现场多家企业明确表示,可以接受补贴滑坡和电价合理下调,但需要放宽对规模的管控。此外,多家光伏电站投资建设规模较大的企业提到了补贴拖欠的问题,在支付周期、支付比例方面提出了自己的诉求。
 
Many enterprises on the site clearly indicated that they could accept subsidies for landslides and reasonable price reductions, but need to relax the control of scale. In addition, many large-scale enterprises investing in photovoltaic power plants mentioned the problem of subsidies in arrears, and put forward their own demands in terms of payment cycle and proportion.
 
 
 
按照以往惯例,光伏补贴电价调整的政策文件,均在每年12月底出台,而征求意见稿一般在“十一”前后出台,经过两个月的意见征求后正式下发。本次会议着重讨论了2019年的补贴强度问题,预计将在不久后出台《2019年光伏发电项目价格政策征求意见稿》。
 
According to the past practice, the policy documents of photovoltaic subsidy tariff adjustment are issued at the end of December each year, while the draft for comments is usually issued around the "eleventh" and issued formally after two months'opinions. The meeting focused on the intensity of subsidies in 2019, and it is expected that a draft price policy for photovoltaic power generation projects in 2019 will be published shortly.
 

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