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国际能源署:未来原油价格或将走高 国际油价逼

作者:admin  日期:2018-11-24 16:45  人气:
国际能源署(IEA)13日公布的月度原油市场报告显示,今年8月,因利比亚和伊拉克增产,欧佩克成员国的原油供应升至九个月高点3263万桶/日。但IEA警告称,因伊朗、委内瑞拉减产幅度加大,未来原油价格或将走高。未来三个月全球石油的日消费量将突破1亿桶,或令油价面临压力。需求方面,IEA维持2018年和2019年全球原油需求增长预估不变,分别为140万桶/日和150万桶/日。
 
According to the monthly crude oil market report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the 13th, oil supply in OPEC member countries rose to a nine-month high of 32.63 million barrels per day in August this year due to increased production in Libya and Iraq. But the IEA warned that future crude oil prices could rise as production cuts in Iran and Venezuela increase. Global oil consumption will exceed 100 million barrels a day in the next three months, or put pressure on oil prices. On the demand side, the IEA maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 at 1.4 million barrels per day and 1.5 million barrels per day, respectively.
 
 
 
国际油价逼近四年来高点
 
International oil prices are approaching four-year highs
 
 
 
国际原油价格本周气势如虹,纽约油价本周四、周五再次突破70美元,布伦特油价同期盘中多次突破80美元,两者距离4年最高点只有一步之遥。
 
International crude oil prices are in a strong mood this week. New York oil prices surpassed $70 again on Thursday and Friday, and Brent oil prices surpassed $80 several times in the same period. The two are only one step away from the four-year high.
 
 
 
近3个交易日的油价呈现出宽幅振荡、振荡幅度接近7%。国际、国内市场,多空博弈激烈,成交量大幅放大,投资获利机会较多。
 
In the past three trading days, oil prices have shown a wide range of oscillation, the oscillation range is close to 7%. In the international and domestic markets, the multi-empty game is fierce, the volume of transactions is greatly enlarged, and investment opportunities are more profitable.
 
 
 
 
 
油价之所以上涨,供给方面的促进因素大于金融市场的促进因素。最新数据显示,虽然美国暑假旺销期过去,但美国原油库存量却处在减少之中,机构普遍预期四季度原油产量将下调。部分产区原油出口预期也被机构普遍调低。
 
The reason for the rise in oil prices is that the supply-side factors are greater than the financial market factors. The latest data show that although the U.S. summer holiday boom has passed, U.S. crude oil stocks are declining, and institutions generally expect crude oil production to decline in the fourth quarter. Crude oil export expectations in some production areas have also been generally lowered by institutions.
 
 
 
不过,石油供应趋紧导致国际油价上涨,使得全球油气勘探的热度有所恢复。页岩气开发或许加速。目前来看,油价上涨的利好因素属于中线利好,而非“跨年度”的长线利好。
 
However, the tightening of oil supply has led to an increase in international oil prices, which has led to a revival of global oil and gas exploration. Shale gas development may accelerate. At present, the positive factor of oil price rise is the medium-term advantage, not the "cross-year" long-term advantage.
 
 
 
厦门大学能源经济研究中心主任林伯强认为,原油市场基本面趋好,国际石油供需量处于较紧张的状态。预计布伦特原油期货价格可能很快升到每桶80美元,且刷新4年新高。
 
Lin Boqiang, director of the Center for Energy Economics Research of Xiamen University, believes that the basic aspects of the crude oil market are getting better and the international oil supply and demand are in a rather tight state. Brent crude oil futures are expected to rise to $80 a barrel soon and reach a four-year high.
 
 
 
油价上涨,哪些投资机会值得关注呢?
 
What investment opportunities are worth paying attention to as oil prices rise?
 
 
 
机遇一
 
Opportunity one
 
 
 
“纸原油”有双向操作机会
 
"Paper crude oil" has two-way operation opportunities
 
 
 
国际原油价格大幅振荡,为国内“纸原油”带来双向操作的机会。“纸原油”在几家国内商业银行平台交易既可以“做多”,也可以“做空”,但没有放大功能,是目前国内市场上挂钩国际油价最紧密、操作最简便且风险最小的品种,规则类似“纸黄金”。8月以来,该平台交易量呈现增长态势。
 
The sharp fluctuation of international crude oil prices has brought two-way operation opportunities for domestic "paper crude oil". Paper crude oil can be traded on platforms of several domestic commercial banks either "long" or "short", but it has no amplification function. It is the most closely linked international oil price, the simplest operation and the smallest risk in the domestic market. The rules are similar to "paper gold". Since August, the trading volume of the platform has shown a growth trend.
 
 
 
机遇二
 
Opportunity two
 
 
 
原油期货交投活跃
 
Active trading of crude oil futures
 
 
 
国际原油价格整体向上,增加了2018年国内期货新品种原油期货的关注度。该产品8-9月的交易量比6-7月时高出了20%以上。对比纸原油,原油期货与国际原油价格的关联度也较高,投资者需要关注的基本面也基本一致。
 
The overall upward trend of international crude oil prices has increased the attention of the new domestic futures varieties of crude oil futures in 2018. The volume of the product in August-September is more than 20% higher than that in June-July. Compared with paper crude oil, the correlation between crude oil futures and international crude oil prices is also high, and the fundamentals that investors need to pay attention to are basically the same.
 
 
 
机遇三
 
Opportunity three
 
 
 
油气板块投资价值提升
 
Improving the Investment Value of Oil and Gas Plate
 
 
 
原油价格上涨,生产原油产品的企业利润可提升,对于油气采掘上市公司来说,也是重磅利好。为此,A股多家企业预期三季度业绩向上,整个板块的股票投资价值正在提升中。
 
With the rising price of crude oil, the profits of enterprises producing crude oil products can be increased, which is also a huge boost for listed companies of oil and gas extraction. For this reason, many A-share companies are expected to achieve better results in the third quarter, and the value of stock investment in the whole sector is rising.

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