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美股:科技股涨幅显著 投资者开始趋于谨慎

作者:admin  日期:2018-10-29 14:21  人气:
经过七个月的窄幅震荡,标普500迎来了新的高点,8月份攀升3%。而以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数上涨速度更快,上涨5.7%,创下自2000年以来的最大涨幅。
 
After seven months of narrow concussion, S & P 500 ushered in a new high, rising 3% in August. The technology-dominated Nasdaq index rose faster, up 5.7%, its biggest gain since 2000.
 
 
 
美国股市在一片向好中走出了八月,进入了时间周期中动荡的9月。历史上多次大的崩盘和熊市都发生在8-10月期间,而九月则是表现最糟糕的一个月。美股在9月面临的不确定性最多,因为这个月政客和交易员纷纷结束夏休。
 
The US stock market went out of the way in August and entered the turbulent September in the time period. Several major crashes and bear markets in history occurred between August and October, and September was the worst month. The US stock market faces the most uncertainty in September, because politicians and traders ended the summer break this month.
 
 
 
 
 
根据香港经济日报提供的数据,标普自1928年成立以来,有55%的时间9月出现下跌,平均跌幅1.01%;道指在127年中9月下跌70次,平均跌幅1.03%;纳斯达克自1971年以来,有45%的时间9月会下跌,平均跌幅0.49%。
 
According to the Hong Kong Economic Daily, S&P has fallen 55% in September since its inception in 1928, an average of 1.01%; the Dow has fallen 70 times in mid-127, an average of 1.03%; and Nasdaq has fallen 45% in September since 1971, an average of 0.49%.
 
 
 
科技股涨幅显著,投资者开始趋于谨慎
 
Technology stocks rose significantly, investors began to be cautious.
 
 
 
越来越多的投资者开始担心股市的大部分涨幅都是由以FAANG为首的少数大型科技公司推动的。
 
More and more investors are beginning to worry that most of the gains in the stock market are driven by a handful of large technology companies led by FAANG.
 
 
 
8月,苹果上涨超过20%,达到20.08%;亚马逊上涨13.24%;谷歌母公司Alphabet则上升8.68%。股价均迎来2008年次贷危机后的新高。
 
In August, Apple rose more than 20% to 20.08%; Amazon rose 13.24%; and Google parent Alphabet rose 8.68%. Share prices are coming to a new high after the subprime crisis in 2008.
 
 
 
今年上半年,在FAANG的带动下,科技股对标普500指数涨幅的贡献率高达98%。
 
In the first half of this year, the contribution of technology stocks to the S & P 500 index rose to 98%, driven by FAANG.
 
 
 
高盛的一份研究报告称,通过对美国过去40年数据的分析,当前标普500指数中股票的平均估值在历史估值中排名前3%。这主要归因于快速成长的科技股的涨势。
 
According to a Goldman Sachs study, an analysis of U.S. data over the past 40 years shows that the current average valuation of stocks in the S&P 500 is in the top 3% of historical valuations. This is mainly attributable to the rising trend of fast-growing technology stocks.
 
 
 
华尔街日报援引The Wealth Consulting Group的首席投资官Mark Senseman表示,即使盈利强劲,许多科技公司的估值也“变得泡沫化”。
 
Mark Senseman, chief investment officer of The Wealth Consulting Group, quoted by the Wall Street journal, said that even if profits were strong, the valuation of many technology companies also became "bubble".
 
 
 
由于担心估值泡沫化引发的潜在回调,基金经理选择抛售部分股票持有现金。摩根士丹利和加拿大皇家银行资本等机构纷纷推荐抛售科技股,以规避风险。
 
Worried about potential pullbacks triggered by the valuation bubble, fund managers chose to sell some stocks and hold cash. Institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Canada Capital have recommended selling technology stocks to avoid risk.
 
 
 
根据美银美林的数据,在投资组合中,全球基金经理平均持有5%的现金,这是4月份以来的最高份额。
 
Global fund managers hold an average of 5% of their portfolios, the highest share since April, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
 
 
 
此外,公用事业和房地产公司的股票在过去几个月里已经开始反弹,预示着市场避险情绪开始上升。
 
In addition, utilities and real estate stocks have rebounded in the past few months, signaling a rise in risk aversion.
 
 
 
9月加息可能性较大,美股或加剧动荡
 
The possibility of raising interest rates in September is more likely to increase or increase turbulence.
 
 
 
8月24日,美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在Jackson Hole全球银行家年会发表演说称,美联储现在循序渐进的加息步伐是合适的,因美国经济仍然强劲,支持美联储继续收紧货币政策。
 
Speaking at the annual meeting of global bankers in Jackson Hole on August 24, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it was appropriate for the Fed to step up interest rates now as the U.S. economy remained strong and supported the Fed to continue tightening monetary policy.
 
 
 
此番讲话暗示美联储加息步伐尚未结束,但很多人担忧,加息会使美国股市面临大幅调整。
 
The speech hinted that the Fed's pace of interest rate hikes was not over, but many people were worried that the rate hikes would lead to significant adjustments in the U.S. stock market.
 
 
 
过去50年中,包含本轮在内,美国共经历了10轮加息周期。前9轮中有7轮股市在加息期间保持上涨,股市平均涨幅在6%以上,而股市大调整多发生在加息后期和经济衰退前夕。
 
In the past 50 years, the United States has gone through 10 rounds of interest rate cycles including the current round. Seven of the first nine rounds of the stock market rallied during the interest rate hike, with the stock market rising by an average of more than 6%, while the stock market adjustment occurred mostly in the late period of interest rate hike and the eve of economic recession.
 
 
 
华菁资管宏观策略总监李宗光在《经济观察报》刊文表示,加息好比“温水煮青蛙”,加息初期阶段,通胀以及盈利增长加速,乐观情绪下,股市进一步上涨,估值进一步提高。但加息效应存在滞后性,持续加息会使加息的累积效应在某一个阶段集中爆发,经济增长开始骤降,乐观情绪开始转化为恐慌情绪,股市大调整拉开序幕。
 
Li Zongguang, director of macro strategy at Huajing Capital Management, wrote in the Economic Observer that raising interest rates is like "boiling frogs in warm water". In the early stage of raising interest rates, inflation and earnings growth accelerated. With optimism, the stock market rose further and valuations rose further. However, there is a lag in the effect of interest rate hikes. Continuous interest rate hikes will make the cumulative effect of interest rate hikes erupt at a certain stage. Economic growth begins to drop sharply, optimism begins to turn into panic, and the stock market adjustment begins.

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