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美股:科技股涨幅显著 投资者开始趋于谨慎

作者:admin  日期:2018-10-29 14:21  人气:
After seven months of narrow concussion, S & P 500 ushered in a new high, rising 3% in August. The technology-dominated Nasdaq index rose faster, up 5.7%, its biggest gain since 2000.
The US stock market went out of the way in August and entered the turbulent September in the time period. Several major crashes and bear markets in history occurred between August and October, and September was the worst month. The US stock market faces the most uncertainty in September, because politicians and traders ended the summer break this month.
According to the Hong Kong Economic Daily, S&P has fallen 55% in September since its inception in 1928, an average of 1.01%; the Dow has fallen 70 times in mid-127, an average of 1.03%; and Nasdaq has fallen 45% in September since 1971, an average of 0.49%.
Technology stocks rose significantly, investors began to be cautious.
More and more investors are beginning to worry that most of the gains in the stock market are driven by a handful of large technology companies led by FAANG.
In August, Apple rose more than 20% to 20.08%; Amazon rose 13.24%; and Google parent Alphabet rose 8.68%. Share prices are coming to a new high after the subprime crisis in 2008.
In the first half of this year, the contribution of technology stocks to the S & P 500 index rose to 98%, driven by FAANG.
According to a Goldman Sachs study, an analysis of U.S. data over the past 40 years shows that the current average valuation of stocks in the S&P 500 is in the top 3% of historical valuations. This is mainly attributable to the rising trend of fast-growing technology stocks.
华尔街日报援引The Wealth Consulting Group的首席投资官Mark Senseman表示,即使盈利强劲,许多科技公司的估值也“变得泡沫化”。
Mark Senseman, chief investment officer of The Wealth Consulting Group, quoted by the Wall Street journal, said that even if profits were strong, the valuation of many technology companies also became "bubble".
Worried about potential pullbacks triggered by the valuation bubble, fund managers chose to sell some stocks and hold cash. Institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Canada Capital have recommended selling technology stocks to avoid risk.
Global fund managers hold an average of 5% of their portfolios, the highest share since April, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
In addition, utilities and real estate stocks have rebounded in the past few months, signaling a rise in risk aversion.
The possibility of raising interest rates in September is more likely to increase or increase turbulence.
8月24日,美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在Jackson Hole全球银行家年会发表演说称,美联储现在循序渐进的加息步伐是合适的,因美国经济仍然强劲,支持美联储继续收紧货币政策。
Speaking at the annual meeting of global bankers in Jackson Hole on August 24, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it was appropriate for the Fed to step up interest rates now as the U.S. economy remained strong and supported the Fed to continue tightening monetary policy.
The speech hinted that the Fed's pace of interest rate hikes was not over, but many people were worried that the rate hikes would lead to significant adjustments in the U.S. stock market.
In the past 50 years, the United States has gone through 10 rounds of interest rate cycles including the current round. Seven of the first nine rounds of the stock market rallied during the interest rate hike, with the stock market rising by an average of more than 6%, while the stock market adjustment occurred mostly in the late period of interest rate hike and the eve of economic recession.
Li Zongguang, director of macro strategy at Huajing Capital Management, wrote in the Economic Observer that raising interest rates is like "boiling frogs in warm water". In the early stage of raising interest rates, inflation and earnings growth accelerated. With optimism, the stock market rose further and valuations rose further. However, there is a lag in the effect of interest rate hikes. Continuous interest rate hikes will make the cumulative effect of interest rate hikes erupt at a certain stage. Economic growth begins to drop sharply, optimism begins to turn into panic, and the stock market adjustment begins.

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